Not Quite the Greatest Victory Ever / Predictions

Watching any national sports program today really made me wish Brett Favre was still in the spotlight to take the attention from the United States victory over Canada last night.

Don't get me wrong, the Americans 5-3 win isn't meaningless. It was the first time the Americans bested the Canadians at the Olympic Games since 1960, which I guess is neat. The victory also proved that the less talented USA team could hold their own with the current hockey powers of the world. And winning a bye into the quarterfinals is still rather important.

But spending 5 minutes watching the four-letter network or any similar station left you with the impression that this victory rivals the Miracle on Ice. It is not.

Yesterday's game did prove that USA goaltender Ryan Miller can steal a game. It also showed that the Canadians may be caving under the pressure to produce for the hometown fans. While this wasn't the biggest game for the Americans, it is one of the most important losses for Team Canada in Olympic competition.

The fact remains that if Team USA wants to win a medal of any color, it will need to be 'Miller Time' for 3 more games. The Americans do not have the firepower to hang with Sweden, the Czechs, Canadians, or Russians. Team Finland plays the same type of gritty game the Americans try to play, except they are more experienced and talented and have their own brick wall in Miikka Kiprusoff.


Qualification Playoffs Predictions

Enough talk on that subject, the first 4 of the single-elimination games are Tuesday.

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The first game on tap should be the most competitive. Team Belarus, led by former Pittsburgh Penguin first-rounder Konstantin Koltsov, has a very potent offense that nearly surprised Sweden in the preliminary round before coming alive against Germany.

Switzerland, led by Anaheim Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller and New York Islanders rearguard Mark Streit, are a team that has relied on their defensive play to defeat their opponents. While not very gifted offensively, the Swiss defense should be able to provide enough opportunities for their offense produce.

Switzerland 3, Belarus 2

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I kind of feel bad for the Latvians. They were thoroughly out-played by the Czechs in their first meeting of these Olympics, and now they have to face a Jaromir Jagr who is more possessed and determined to produce than ever. This game will not be as close as their first meeting.

Czech Republic 6, Latvia 1

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Slovakia holds the biggest upset of this tournament, besting Team Russia in overtime. Norway was blown out in their first two games before being allowed in a track meet with Switzerland. The NHL-laden Slovaks should run away with this one.

Slovakia 5, Norway 2

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The Germans need to be prepared for an all-out assault from their qualification round opponent. Team Canada has a ton to prove, and the Germans likely will not be up to the task of holding them off. The biggest question about this game is whether Martin Brodeur gets another Olympics start.

Canada 7, Germany 2

Spring Break for the Fantasy World

Okay, maybe Spring Break isn't the best title, since most of us are still buried under literal feet of snow, but it works in principal.

The NHL is taking a couple of weeks off for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia and that leaves all the fantasy poolies with nothing to do for a couple weeks. (I mean, you could scout players to pick up over the course of the last couple weeks of the season, but do you really need 2 weeks to do that?)

As for me, I'm left with nothing relevant to talk about for a couple weeks, so why not look at how everyone's Olympic teams is faring after their first game.

Canada 8, Norway 0.

Hockey fans north of the border were shocked that this game remained tied after one period. That tie lasted long enough for Sidney Crosby to find his favorite new linemate, Jarome Iginla hiding in the slot.

Nobody realistically expected this game to be close, but it certainly wasn't the blowout it could have been. Norwegian goaltender Pal Grotnes was bombarded by Canadian shots yet only yielded 4 goals before leaving the game with muscle tightness in the 3rd period. Grotnes is the most important member of Team Norway and he showed that he has the ability to steal a game from all but the top tier of teams in Vancouver.

Its hard to be too critical of a team that just won 8-0, but one thing the Canadians will have to do to win this tournament is stay out of the penalty box. Norway may not be gifted enough to capitalize on the ample opportunities Canada gave them, but many of the other teams do have the firepower to make them pay for their overzealous play.

USA 3, Switzerland 1

This was a game that I thought the Swiss had a very good opportunity to outright steal. And were it not for some great individual plays by Americans David Backes and Bobby Ryan, as well as USA goaltender Ryan Miller's staunch play between the pipes, a Swiss victory may have occured.

While Switzerland will be terribly outclassed by Team Canada in their next meeting, they should have a more than reasonable chance against Norway. The Swiss play a tight defensive style, and with some timely goaltending from Jonas Hiller and the occasional goal, they have the resources to surprise some teams again this time like they did with their 4th place finish at the Turin Olympics.

The score of this game may have been tight, but if you watched it you would agree, Team USA was not going to lose this game. They appeared to be doing just enough to win, and doing it very well. They pressed when they needed scoring, and fell back when they needed to protect a lead. Their game against Norway should be more polished and give everyone a better idea of where they really stack up before facing off with Canada this Sunday.

Those were the games in Group A, tomorrow I'll look at the teams in Groups B and C and after Sunday's games look at how things are shaping up for the remainder of the tournament...or I'll just watch more curling and forget to do any of this.

Pushing for a Championship

The upcoming Olympic break will provide an interesting backdrop to many fantasy hockey leagues. Fantasy owners will know for the most part where they stand in their leagues playoff picture, but some will need to use the last couple of weeks to secure or steal a spot.

So what better time to get ready for that final push to the playoffs and beyond than the 2-week fantasy hiatus that begins Valentines Day. That break from fantasy action will give all of you owners plenty of time to scout the best available players and make the necessary free agent signings to get your team the best finish possible.

Who's the best of what's left? Below are my top-5 players likely to still be free agents in your fantasy leagues. Each of them is under 50% ownership in ESPN leagues as of this posting.

5. Alexei Ponikarovsky, LW, TOR (47.7% ESPN Ownership)

With many of the forwards who started the season with the Maple Leafs off to Calgary and Anaheim, it would make sense that somebody would step up and take charge of the Toronto offense, right? Well, that person is Phil Kessel...but Ponikarovsky has always been a 50-60 points-a-year guy and his production could see a slight up-tick if he continues to see a bulk of his time playing with Kessel and seeing first line minutes and powerplay time.

Alexei currently sets at 19 goals and 41 points, but it is not too crazy to think he can add 20-25 more to that point total given the circumstances.

4. Jussi Jokinen, LW, CAR (35.0%)

If you were a Carolina Hurricanes forward early this season and your name wasn't Eric Staal, you were to be avoided like the plague. The 'Canes were dreadful early this year, and many forwards on the club were combining inconsistent offensive numbers with poor defensive end coverage. But since goalie Cam Ward returned in late December, the team has righted ship and many of its players are serviceable fantasy options.

Jokinen is a gritty player who is seeing plenty of top-6 time with the likes of Staal and Ray Whitney, and his point totals are vastly improved. He has 20 goals on top of 24 assists thus far and has even raised his plus/minus to +4, so he isn't even a liability in leagues that use that stat. His time on ice has been close to 20 minutes a game for the past 2 weeks, and he's fired 3 or more shots on goal in 6 of his last 8.

One point of concern if you do turn to Jussi is the trade rumors swirling around Whitney. When, not if, Ray is sent to a playoff contender, Jokinen will see more play with the inexperienced young talent the Hurricanes have, and his scoring could suffer a bit.

3. Brian Elliot, G, OTT (44.8%)

A couple weeks into this season many were singing the praises of Pascal Leclaire. He was the single most talented goaltender to play for the Senators in their brief history. After that honeymoon, however, most remembered why Leclaire had never met his expectations in the NHL: he was about as durable as a faberge egg.

Elliot has often been the one called upon to start for the Sens when Leclaire has gone down, and the results have been mixed. But fantasy hockey isn't about how somebody did earlier in the season, its 'what have you done for me lately'. And what Elliot has done has been absolutely brilliant between the pipes.

He just completed a run of 9 straight victories, over which time he only surrendered 11 goals. His win total nearly doubled and now sits at 19 on the season, and his save percentage and goals against numbers have been brought within the acceptable range for fantasy netminders. He will likely split time with Leclaire over the course of the season, but when he starts he will be a good bet to play well.

2. Tomas Fleischmann, C/RW, WSH (30.3%)

Its hard to say whether Tomas is having a breakout season (17 goals, 24 assists, 48 games played) or if he's just a benefactor of playing on a team with Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, and Mike Green. Does it matter?

Fleischmann is putting up numbers that would have him in the top 30 in the league in scoring if not for some early season injuries. He is also spending time on the clubs second powerplay unit with Backstrom. Maybe the kids talented. Perhaps its just a points by osmosis thing. Either was he should very likely be a part of your team if he is still available.

1. Antero Niittymaki, G, TB (36.4%)

Finally, somebody is playing consistently enough in goal in Tampa Bay to be considered. Niittymaki had been playing in the shadows of incumbent Mike Smith for much of the campaign, but since the calenders flipped he has been a solid number 1.

The Finnish goaltender has started all but one game for the Lightning since 14-Jan and stands to start the majority of the games for the club the rest of the way. And with Tampa in the mix to make the playoffs after the catastrophe of last season, Niittymaki should make a fantastic play.

Impact of the Shake-Up in Toronto

Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Brian Burke isn't quitting his day job early to watch Team USA in Vancouver in a couple of weeks. Burke completed two trades over the weekend that will have far reaching implications in both on the ice and in the fantasy hockey world.

The first deal sent LW Niklas Hagman, C Matt Stajan, RW Jamal Mayers, and D Ian White to Calgary in exchange for prospect Kieth Aulie, RW Fredrik Sjostrom, and D Dion Phaneuf.

Most of those players will arrive in their new cities and play as advertised: Stajan and Hagman will be 50-60 point a year guys and Ian White will be a gritty, consistant defenseman. Phaneuf, however, provides a huge upside for fantasy owners.

Dion broke out in 2007-08 with 17 goals and 60 points, and many places had him as a top 10 defenseman heading into last season. Instead, a season of inconsistency lead to a career low 47-point campaign in 08-09. A chance at the Canadian Olympic team was thought to surely bring Phaneuf back to his high water marks.

But Phaneuf owners have been severely disappointed thus far this season. He failed to make the Olympic team, and inconsistant play at both the offensive and defensive ends have led to only 22 points through 55 games. A change in scenery may be just what the doctor ordered for the hard-hitting Albertan native.

The Calgary Flames brought in a near carbon copy of Phaneuf in free agent Jay Bouwmeester during the off-season, and what was thought to be one of the top defensive cores in the league has proven to be one of the most underachieving. Moving out from under Bouwmeester and out of his home province should take a lot of burden off the young blueliner's shoulders and let him open up into his form from two years ago.

Dion's owners, who were shopping him around for cheap just a couple days ago, may have struck gold. There is still a chance that his numbers do not improve, but the upside is so great that he may be worth the gamble for many owners trying to make or secure a playoff spot.

The second deal sees Burke reunited with 2007 Stanley Cup winning netminder Jean-Sebastian Giguere. Giguere came from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for G Vesa Toskala and LW Jason Blake.

Two players stand out in this trade for potential fantasy increases. Blake will be inserted into a top-6 role in Anaheim, and will likely play on a line with Saku Koivu. When you throw in potential power play time with the likes of Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, and Corey Perry, its easy to understand why Blake's value should reach far and above his current 28.7% ownership in ESPN fantasy leagues.

As big of an upside as Blake has, the upside for Giguere is astronomical. J.S. will likely be inserted directly into the number 1 role in Toronto, given his relationship with Burke and Toronto goalie coach Francois Allaire (both of whom worked with Giguere in Anaheim). "The Monster" Jonas Gustavsson may be the future for the Maple Leafs, but his play has been very inconsistent and a steady veteran presence like Giguere's could go a long way towards his future development

Giguere could stand to pick up 10-15 wins on the season and develop into a top 10 fantasy goaltender down the stretch. That kind of potential cannot be ignored and if he is available, he at least deserves a look from owners in need of goaltending depth.

Welcome / Top 10 Booms so far

Welcome, everybody, to what will hopefully be at least a weekly look into what is happening in the National Hockey League. I will look at any major news going on, but will focus mostly on how everything is effecting our fantasy hockey teams and players.

I am from just east of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and have been a big Penguins fan since the early 1990s (before you call me a bandwagoner consider that I was like, 4 or 5 at this time). This love for hockey grew and I have been following the NHL as a whole since the the late 1990s.

So, where are we at from a fantasy perspective in the NHL this year? Well, it turns out Alexander Ovechkin is really good at scoring goals, Martin Brodeur is an okay goaltender, and the San Jose Sharks are a fantastic regular season team. I know, groundbreaking stuff.

So who is actually outperforming their draft positions so far?

10: Ryan Miller, G, Buffalo Sabres (ESPN Average Draft Position: 111.3)

The surprise is not that Ryan Miller is a good play this season, its that he is probably the night in, night out best play. Miller has always put up GAA and SV% numbers becoming of a Top 10 fantasy goaltender, but the Sabres were not supposed to be this good this year, and Miller has to be considered a huge part of this success. The Sabres are a young team with talented but oft-injured forwards and a young defensive core. They haven't been scoring very many goals (just 2.86 per as of today), and its been "Miller Time" often enough for Buffalo to be considered a very dangerous team.

9: Dany Heatley, RW, San Jose Sharks (ESPN ADP: 27.8)

A couple of years ago Heatley was a unanimous top 5 selection in most fantasy formats. He was good for 50+ goals and enough assists and peripheral numbers to be among the most valuable fantasy players. But his recent decline in production combined with his Chernobyl-like fallout in Ottawa left many doubting his ability to be a major player again. Its amazing what playing alongside the best playmaker in the Western Conference (Joe Thornton [I have him as the best playmaker in the league, but thats a debate for another time]) will do for your career. Even more surprising though, is Dany's ability to become the set-up man for Thornton when necessary. Fantasy owners who managed to pick up Heatley in the 3rd or 4th round have been more than rewarded for their bold selection.

8. Miikka Kiprusoff, G, Calgary Flames (ESPN ADP: 106.9)

Coming into the season, "Kipper" was looked at as the ying to Ryan Miller's yang. Everybody had Miikka penciled in for 38+ wins, but the reason he fell so far in many drafts were his awful Goals Against and Save Percentage numbers. With a GAA last year of nearly 3.00 and a save percentage barely over .900, Kiprusoff just didn't provide enough incentive to owners, despite the guaranteed wins granted by Calgary's potent offense. The Flames aren't the force they were last season, and as a result Kiprusoff will likely end up below 40 wins this season. But with a GAA of 2.25 and a SV% at a healthy .924, you can safely play him on any given night.

7. Patrick Marleau, LW, San Jose Sharks (ESPN ADP: 57.0)

Like many of the players on this list so far, its not a surprise that Marleau has been good this year. The surprise is that he is among the league leaders in goals and points. Many thought Marleau's 38 goal, 71 point season last year (76 games played) was his ceiling, but he is on pace to shatter both those numbers this season. Patrick already has 35 goals and 57 points through 53 games, and as long as he continues to play on an even strength unit with Thornton and Heatley, he will be fantastic.

6. Tyler Myers, D, Buffalo Sabres (ESPN ADP: Not Drafted)

Can anybody actually say they drafted Myers for their fantasy squad? An 18-year-old rookie at one of the hardest positions in professional sports isn't supposed to put up numbers like he has. Tyler is a brief hot streak from having a 50 point year (7g-22a-29pts through 50 games) and has been one of the many overachievers who have the Buffalo Sabres near the top of the Eastern Conference. The reason he isn't higher on the list is he is still a rookie. If he does go on ahead and hit the 50 point plateau, he will be one of the biggest fantasy surprises in recent memory.

5. Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings (ESPN ADP: 91.5)

If this list was posted a couple months ago, Anze would be on top of it. But Kopitar has recently fallen off of his 100 point pace and settled into a still impressive point-a-game pace for the surprising LA Kings. The Kings young talent is maturing quicker than expected, and Kopitar is leading this group to a potential playoff birth. Kopitar may not lead the league but his production is more than rewarding for those who got him in the 8th+ round.

4. Tomas Plekanec, C, Montreal Canadiens (ESPN ADP: Not Drafted)

You could make a list like this every year and it would likely include Plekanec's name. Every season he starts on the third line and by the half way point poor play or injuries to the centers above him on Les Bleu Blanc Rouge depth chart will see Tomas on a near point a game pace. If you picked him up a couple months ago, enjoy the ride. Its doubtful that Plekanec can keep up his point a game pace for the entire season, but you likely picked him up for zero investment, so any consistant production is surprising.

3. Craig Anderson, G, Colorado Avalanche (ESPN ADP: 95.6)

Remember last season when Tomas Vokoun went down to injury and Anderson stepped in for Florida. Many figured the Panthers would slip to the bottom of the standing and become a non-factor. That didn't happen and it doesn't look like Colorado is going to fade out this season either. Anderson has proven that he's the real deal: a goaltender who can play nearly every night and provide a team of young, inexperienced players a chance to win every game.

2. Alex Burrows, RW, Vancouver Canucks (ESPN ADP: 40.6)

1. Henrik Sedin, C, Vancouver Canucks (ESPN ADP: 60.9)

Who is the most valuable player in Vancouver? Before this season many would have said Daniel Sedin was integral to the success of the Canucks, and after he went on injured reserve 4 games into the season, it would have made sense if Vancouver packed it up and fell to the bottom of the Northwest Division. But instead twin brother Henrik and Burrows, "the third twin", picked up their games. Henrik is leading the league in scoring and on pace for 120 points, well above a career high of 82. Burrows was on the receiving end of most of Henrik's assists while Daniel sat out, and continues to enjoy a career season himself. The only thing not surprising about this line is that it has seen its production increase since Daniel returned.