San Jose, Chicago, Detroit, and to a lesser extent Vancouver were all expected to roll right through their Western Conference foes in the first round of the NHL Playoffs. Things were going to be even more one sided in the East, were no teams could possibly match the might of Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, and Buffalo.
Obviously the lower seeded teams (and the higher seeded Phoenix Coyotes) didn't get the memo that they were to roll over and die.
Through 4 games, every series in the Western Conference was tied at 2 games a piece. And home-ice advantage wasn't all it is usually cracked up to be, with the home teams only going 8-8 over that span.
Through 4 games in the East, the lower seeds weren't just staying with the higher seeded teams, they were actually beating them in a couple cases. Philadelphia was up 3-1 in a series they weren't even supposed to be a part of (they have since dispatched the New Jersey Devils) and Boston continued their excellent play against the Buffalo Sabres.
Only the Washington Capitals have had as easy a time in their series as was expected, though they are now up 3-2 against the Montreal Canadiens.
Philly will likely play the Capitals in the second round. The series should be a close, tight-checking affair but in the end, the Capitals potent offense should allow them to move on. The injury-plagued Flyers have exceeded expectations just to make it this far, but its the farthest they will advance this year.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will have 2 chances to dispatch the Ottawa Senators and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Pens play in Ottawa tonight, where they are 2-0 in the playoffs so far, and if they fail will get another go in Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
The winner of this series will play the winner of the Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins series, which the Bruins currently lead 3-2. Boston has been the better team and should advance given their current advantage, but its hard to count out the Sabres with the way goaltender Ryan Miller has played this year.
In the west, San Jose seems to finally be getting over their playoff funk from the past couple years. Colorado has looked anemic since the Sharks Joe Pavelski scored in overtime in game 4.
The series between the Vancouver Canucks and the Los Angeles Kings has been one that has gone closest to predictions. Both teams have seemed almost unstoppable in their home arenas of late, a trend which will favor the Canucks. The Kings are a young team that will be even better in years to come, but this likely isn't their year to excel.
The last two Western Conference series's, the Detroit Red Wings vs. the Phoenix Coyotes and the Chicago Blackhawks vs. the Nashville Predators, will come down to the wire. The Wings and 'Yotes have played some of the best games of these young playoffs, but Phoenix will have to win at the Joe Louis Arena in Hockeytown if they are to advance.
Goaltending has been the lay of the land in the Hawks vs. Predators series, which is currently tied 2-2. Chicago's offensive talent should be enough to bring home a series victory, but Nashville netminder Pekka Rinne is more than good enough to steal it.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
NHL Playoffs Primer: Eastern Conference
Forget the last 6+ months and 82 games. For the 16 teams that earned their birth into the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup, the past means nothing. They are all need 16 wins to claim the prize.
Today we'll look at the 4 matchups in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, and tomorrow the West.
#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montréal Canadiens
The Canadiens played some of their best hockey of the season coming out of the Olympic break. Andrei Markov returned to the club after missing a most of the year and Mike Cammalleri is back after a late season injury.
The Habs even have a #1 goaltender going into the playoffs. Jaroslav Halek has earned the top job and is playing consistent between the pipes, something that seemed like an impossibility earlier this season.
Montréal's biggest strength and best chance of winning this series is their 2nd ranked powerplay. But they had the fewest opportunities with the man advantage in the league in 09-10, so they will have to work much harder and draw some calls against Washington to put their vaunted PP to work.
And yet as good as the Canadiens were this year, the Washington Capitals were that much better. Winning the President's Trophy as the best regular season team, no other team in the league rolled through the schedule like no other.
The Canadiens had the 2nd ranked powerplay, but the most potent man advantage in the league was the Capitals'. Alexander Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, and 40 goal scorer Alexander Semin join topscoring rearguard Mike Green to reek havoc on opposing teams.
Nobody can question the offensive might of the Capitals. The only question is can their defense and goaltending hold up? Netminders Semyon Varlamov and Jose Theodore have looked brilliant at times this year, but have also been miserable and in need of plenty of bailouts from Ovi and Company.
But as shaky as the Capitals defense may be, there is likely no way that the Canadiens, who were the worst team in the league 5-on-5, can capitalize and make much of a run at taking the series, and barring a very flat game by the Capitals may not be able to take a single game.
Capitals win in 4
#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
Well, the Flyers managed to not completely blow a shot at this years playoffs, claiming their spot in a shootout against the New York Rangers Sunday. Unfortunately, that may be the last positive for a team that has been plagued with injuries all season.
Goaltender Brian Boucher has been forced into the starting role for the first period of extended time in his career, and he has been quite hit or miss all season. He was splendid in the season finale against Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers, but that has been offset by some less than impressive outings.
The Flyers will also be without Jeff Carter for the series. The Flyers are more than talented enough on offense to compensate for his loss. Simon Gagne, Danny Briere, and Mike Richards, and Scott Hartnell will need to carry the club.
Offense is usually a weak point for the #2 seeded Devils, but it may be a strength this season. Joining Patrick Elias, Travis Zajac, and Zach Parise via trade was Russian sniper Ilya Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk teams with Parise to give the Devils a 1-2 scoring punch rivaled by few teams in the NHL.
Off course any discussion of this series would not be complete without looking at the living legend Martin Brodeur. Any critics who said Marty looked old at the end of last season have surely been silenced by a Vezina-worthy showing this season, and he has the ability to take this team to the Cup finals by himself.
This series will come done to the goaltenders, and it is very unlikely that Boucher will be able to out duel his Devils counterpart.
Devils win in 5
#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins
Boston entered last year's Stanley Cup Playoffs as the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and were quickly dispatched by a Carolina Hurricanes team that had scoring depth and steady goaltending. If Boston is to make a run this year, they will need to learn from last season's lessons.
Rookie Tuukka Rask has usurped veteran Tim Thomas as the top netminder for the Bruins. Rask has been outstanding this year, and is top-5 in the league in Goals Against Average and Save Percentage. A solid defense core led by 6'9" Zdeno Chara has held opposing scorers in check all year, and nobody will question the Bruins defensively.
Offensive leader Marc Savard will likely miss the entire series. What this means is Boston will need to look a lot like Carolina did last year offensively, getting scoring from all 4 lines. The good news is they have that ability. David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Miroslav Satan will need to lead Boston against one of the best goaltenders in the league.
It has been 'Miller Time' all year in Buffalo. Veteran Ryan Miller backstopped the Sabres to a division title this year and is the likely Vezina Trophy winner. Miller was a huge reason for the defensive success of the Sabres, but a strong defensive group led by veteran Toni Lydman and Calder-candidate Tyler Myers deserve some of the credit.
Offensively Buffalo is perhaps better than they have been in a couple seasons. Derek Roy is always a premier scoring threat, and Thomas Vanek has added 5 goals in 2 games since returning from a minor groin injury. Tim Connoly could also return from injury at some point in the series, and his addition will bolster and already deep scoring team.
The series is one of the most competitive in the East. Buffalo is the better team on paper, but Boston played them very well all season long. Both teams are missing their leading scorers and both play strong defense in front of outstanding goaltending. It will be close, but look for Ryan Miller to out duel Tuukka Rask in a series that may go the limit.
Sabres win in 6
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators
For the third time in the past four seasons, the Senators and Penguins will square off in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
This time around, Ottawa is being lead by a resurgent offense led by veterans Daniel Alfredson and Jason Spezza. Milan Michalek, Mike Fisher, and Chris Kelly provide some much needed secondary scoring. They will need to step up in the absence of Alex Kovalev, who will miss the series with a knee injury.
Goalie Brian Elliot has been steady much of the year, but a lot of the Senators defensive credit should fall on the blueliners. Chris Phillips and Andy Sutton join Anton Volchenkov to form a giant, menacing rear guard that will give opposing scorers fits.
The Penguins, as always, are led by their offense. Sidney Crosby has turned himself into a top faceoff man and a league-leading goal scorer, while last season's Conn Smythe winner Evgeni Malkin continues to play his best in high pressure situations. Alex Ponikarovsky and Bill Guerin will be looked upon heavily to take some scoring burden off of the two superstars.
On the backend the Pens are lead by powerplay specialist Sergei Gonchar. New addition Jordan Leopold and long-time 'Guins Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski, and Mark Eaton will look to shut down Spezza and Alfredson and even chip in on the offense a bit.
The Penguins have had some problems over the season, especially on the powerplay. But they are a team built for a long playoff series and are loaded with big-game performers. The games may be close all series long, but the Pens should come out on top.
Penguins win in 5
Today we'll look at the 4 matchups in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, and tomorrow the West.
#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montréal Canadiens
The Canadiens played some of their best hockey of the season coming out of the Olympic break. Andrei Markov returned to the club after missing a most of the year and Mike Cammalleri is back after a late season injury.
The Habs even have a #1 goaltender going into the playoffs. Jaroslav Halek has earned the top job and is playing consistent between the pipes, something that seemed like an impossibility earlier this season.
Montréal's biggest strength and best chance of winning this series is their 2nd ranked powerplay. But they had the fewest opportunities with the man advantage in the league in 09-10, so they will have to work much harder and draw some calls against Washington to put their vaunted PP to work.
And yet as good as the Canadiens were this year, the Washington Capitals were that much better. Winning the President's Trophy as the best regular season team, no other team in the league rolled through the schedule like no other.
The Canadiens had the 2nd ranked powerplay, but the most potent man advantage in the league was the Capitals'. Alexander Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, and 40 goal scorer Alexander Semin join topscoring rearguard Mike Green to reek havoc on opposing teams.
Nobody can question the offensive might of the Capitals. The only question is can their defense and goaltending hold up? Netminders Semyon Varlamov and Jose Theodore have looked brilliant at times this year, but have also been miserable and in need of plenty of bailouts from Ovi and Company. But as shaky as the Capitals defense may be, there is likely no way that the Canadiens, who were the worst team in the league 5-on-5, can capitalize and make much of a run at taking the series, and barring a very flat game by the Capitals may not be able to take a single game.
Capitals win in 4
#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
Well, the Flyers managed to not completely blow a shot at this years playoffs, claiming their spot in a shootout against the New York Rangers Sunday. Unfortunately, that may be the last positive for a team that has been plagued with injuries all season.
Goaltender Brian Boucher has been forced into the starting role for the first period of extended time in his career, and he has been quite hit or miss all season. He was splendid in the season finale against Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers, but that has been offset by some less than impressive outings.
The Flyers will also be without Jeff Carter for the series. The Flyers are more than talented enough on offense to compensate for his loss. Simon Gagne, Danny Briere, and Mike Richards, and Scott Hartnell will need to carry the club.
Offense is usually a weak point for the #2 seeded Devils, but it may be a strength this season. Joining Patrick Elias, Travis Zajac, and Zach Parise via trade was Russian sniper Ilya Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk teams with Parise to give the Devils a 1-2 scoring punch rivaled by few teams in the NHL.
Off course any discussion of this series would not be complete without looking at the living legend Martin Brodeur. Any critics who said Marty looked old at the end of last season have surely been silenced by a Vezina-worthy showing this season, and he has the ability to take this team to the Cup finals by himself.This series will come done to the goaltenders, and it is very unlikely that Boucher will be able to out duel his Devils counterpart.
Devils win in 5
#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins
Boston entered last year's Stanley Cup Playoffs as the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and were quickly dispatched by a Carolina Hurricanes team that had scoring depth and steady goaltending. If Boston is to make a run this year, they will need to learn from last season's lessons.
Rookie Tuukka Rask has usurped veteran Tim Thomas as the top netminder for the Bruins. Rask has been outstanding this year, and is top-5 in the league in Goals Against Average and Save Percentage. A solid defense core led by 6'9" Zdeno Chara has held opposing scorers in check all year, and nobody will question the Bruins defensively.Offensive leader Marc Savard will likely miss the entire series. What this means is Boston will need to look a lot like Carolina did last year offensively, getting scoring from all 4 lines. The good news is they have that ability. David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Miroslav Satan will need to lead Boston against one of the best goaltenders in the league.
It has been 'Miller Time' all year in Buffalo. Veteran Ryan Miller backstopped the Sabres to a division title this year and is the likely Vezina Trophy winner. Miller was a huge reason for the defensive success of the Sabres, but a strong defensive group led by veteran Toni Lydman and Calder-candidate Tyler Myers deserve some of the credit.
Offensively Buffalo is perhaps better than they have been in a couple seasons. Derek Roy is always a premier scoring threat, and Thomas Vanek has added 5 goals in 2 games since returning from a minor groin injury. Tim Connoly could also return from injury at some point in the series, and his addition will bolster and already deep scoring team.
The series is one of the most competitive in the East. Buffalo is the better team on paper, but Boston played them very well all season long. Both teams are missing their leading scorers and both play strong defense in front of outstanding goaltending. It will be close, but look for Ryan Miller to out duel Tuukka Rask in a series that may go the limit.
Sabres win in 6
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators
For the third time in the past four seasons, the Senators and Penguins will square off in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
This time around, Ottawa is being lead by a resurgent offense led by veterans Daniel Alfredson and Jason Spezza. Milan Michalek, Mike Fisher, and Chris Kelly provide some much needed secondary scoring. They will need to step up in the absence of Alex Kovalev, who will miss the series with a knee injury.
Goalie Brian Elliot has been steady much of the year, but a lot of the Senators defensive credit should fall on the blueliners. Chris Phillips and Andy Sutton join Anton Volchenkov to form a giant, menacing rear guard that will give opposing scorers fits.
The Penguins, as always, are led by their offense. Sidney Crosby has turned himself into a top faceoff man and a league-leading goal scorer, while last season's Conn Smythe winner Evgeni Malkin continues to play his best in high pressure situations. Alex Ponikarovsky and Bill Guerin will be looked upon heavily to take some scoring burden off of the two superstars.
On the backend the Pens are lead by powerplay specialist Sergei Gonchar. New addition Jordan Leopold and long-time 'Guins Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski, and Mark Eaton will look to shut down Spezza and Alfredson and even chip in on the offense a bit.
The Penguins have had some problems over the season, especially on the powerplay. But they are a team built for a long playoff series and are loaded with big-game performers. The games may be close all series long, but the Pens should come out on top.
Penguins win in 5
Sunday, March 28, 2010
New Playoff Format
At the NHL General Managers meetings held recently, the main talking point was, rightfully so, about blindside hits and checks targeting the head area. But their was another item brought up. It wasn't talked about with nearly the urgency of the high hits but it was an interesting one nonetheless.
The topic was a change from the current NHL playoff format (the top 8 teams in each conference qualify and play best of seven series' until a winner is decided) to something very close to the popular format used at the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics (The top teams in each group earn a bye while all the other teams in the tournament play single-elimination games to determine the final entrants in a traditional playoff structure.)
The way that this would work in the NHL is very similar to the current system. The top 7 teams after the regular season would be guaranteed a playoff spot. The eighth spot would be determined by a single elimination play-in tournament between the other teams ranked 8-15 in the conference.
I think its only fair in a debate such as this to list the pros and cons of each format, and then end by influencing your decision by telling you how I think.
The Current NHL Playoff System
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And there are very few people who would argue that their is very much wrong with the current playoff format. Teams who earn their way into the playoffs could play 4 best-of-seven series before the silver hardware known as Lord Stanley's Cup is handed out.
Cities who's teams make the playoffs are also rewarded. With at least 2 home games in each round, cities of winning teams can see a huge boom to tourism related industries as fans converge on the city for important games.
A seven game series among the best of the best in each conference also adds to the intensity and the importance of the event. Teams can come to hate each other and fans will be far more into the series when your facing the same foe for as much as two weeks straight.
The lone downside many see with the current system is the length of the season. Every team in the league must play 82 games between October and early April. And teams hoping to win the Cup must soldier through 16-28 more games and continue to play well into June. This leaves players and fans with less than 3 months to prepare for the next season and arguably leads to injuries and fatigue among players (i.e. Evgeni Malkin, who over the past calender year has played over 100 games and has been plagued with injuries this year).
The "Olympic"-style Playoff System
I'm not going to hide it any longer. I am all for a playoff system more closely resembling what was seen at the Vancouver Games.
One of the biggest criticisms of this systems is that it would lower the importance of the regular season. "If everyone is allowed in than why does it matter?" Seeding is why it all matters. Being one of the top-7 teams carries the same level of importance as being one of the top-8 teams does under the current system, with the added benefit of the 8-15 ranked teams actually having something to play for after the trade deadline.
The length of the season is something that would need to be addressed. Adding the play-in rounds would add 3 games and at least another week to an already elongated schedule. There are two solutions to these problems. The first is to shorten the regular season to around 76 games. Another would be to make the Conference Quarterfinals and Conference Semifinals best-of-5 games instead of best-of-7.
Even keeping the regular season at 82 games and shortening the first two playoff rounds would be enough to keep the season length roughly the same. This also would not have much of a negative impact on the economies of NHL cities due to a shortening of a couple playoff rounds. Under the current system, there can be anywhere from 60-105 playoff games, with something close to 80 being average. The Olympic style system with a shortened first and second round would see 62-81 playoff games, with an average of 70-72. There are less games and ultimately less revenue, but the money is spread more evenly among all 30 NHL teams.
The main reason I love this system so much is simply the fact that it keeps more people interested in the NHL for longer. The Olympic Games had record numbers of Americans glued to their television, and it would be naive to think that a setup where every team had a chance had nothing to do with it.
The fact that this system effectively changes nothing over the old system other than allowing a couple teams a few more playoff games a a slight redistribution of playoff revenue will likely keep it on the shelf for the foreseeable future, but if it can ever be proven that a shorter regular season followed by a shorter, more intense playoffs can generate a greater interest in hockey and the NHL than this change may just happen.
The topic was a change from the current NHL playoff format (the top 8 teams in each conference qualify and play best of seven series' until a winner is decided) to something very close to the popular format used at the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics (The top teams in each group earn a bye while all the other teams in the tournament play single-elimination games to determine the final entrants in a traditional playoff structure.)
The way that this would work in the NHL is very similar to the current system. The top 7 teams after the regular season would be guaranteed a playoff spot. The eighth spot would be determined by a single elimination play-in tournament between the other teams ranked 8-15 in the conference.
I think its only fair in a debate such as this to list the pros and cons of each format, and then end by influencing your decision by telling you how I think.
The Current NHL Playoff System
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And there are very few people who would argue that their is very much wrong with the current playoff format. Teams who earn their way into the playoffs could play 4 best-of-seven series before the silver hardware known as Lord Stanley's Cup is handed out.
Cities who's teams make the playoffs are also rewarded. With at least 2 home games in each round, cities of winning teams can see a huge boom to tourism related industries as fans converge on the city for important games.
A seven game series among the best of the best in each conference also adds to the intensity and the importance of the event. Teams can come to hate each other and fans will be far more into the series when your facing the same foe for as much as two weeks straight.
The lone downside many see with the current system is the length of the season. Every team in the league must play 82 games between October and early April. And teams hoping to win the Cup must soldier through 16-28 more games and continue to play well into June. This leaves players and fans with less than 3 months to prepare for the next season and arguably leads to injuries and fatigue among players (i.e. Evgeni Malkin, who over the past calender year has played over 100 games and has been plagued with injuries this year).
The "Olympic"-style Playoff System
I'm not going to hide it any longer. I am all for a playoff system more closely resembling what was seen at the Vancouver Games.
One of the biggest criticisms of this systems is that it would lower the importance of the regular season. "If everyone is allowed in than why does it matter?" Seeding is why it all matters. Being one of the top-7 teams carries the same level of importance as being one of the top-8 teams does under the current system, with the added benefit of the 8-15 ranked teams actually having something to play for after the trade deadline.
The length of the season is something that would need to be addressed. Adding the play-in rounds would add 3 games and at least another week to an already elongated schedule. There are two solutions to these problems. The first is to shorten the regular season to around 76 games. Another would be to make the Conference Quarterfinals and Conference Semifinals best-of-5 games instead of best-of-7.
Even keeping the regular season at 82 games and shortening the first two playoff rounds would be enough to keep the season length roughly the same. This also would not have much of a negative impact on the economies of NHL cities due to a shortening of a couple playoff rounds. Under the current system, there can be anywhere from 60-105 playoff games, with something close to 80 being average. The Olympic style system with a shortened first and second round would see 62-81 playoff games, with an average of 70-72. There are less games and ultimately less revenue, but the money is spread more evenly among all 30 NHL teams.
The main reason I love this system so much is simply the fact that it keeps more people interested in the NHL for longer. The Olympic Games had record numbers of Americans glued to their television, and it would be naive to think that a setup where every team had a chance had nothing to do with it.
The fact that this system effectively changes nothing over the old system other than allowing a couple teams a few more playoff games a a slight redistribution of playoff revenue will likely keep it on the shelf for the foreseeable future, but if it can ever be proven that a shorter regular season followed by a shorter, more intense playoffs can generate a greater interest in hockey and the NHL than this change may just happen.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Who's left to pick up?
Its a question that many fantasy owners are undoubtedly asking themselves as we near the time of year when playoffs begin. Every team is looking for that one extra piece or hidden gem that everyone else forgot about to push them over the top and win them some hard-earned cash/glory.
The problem is that it is unlikely that there will be very many quality players left on your waiver wire. Most of the teams competing for the playoffs will have snapped them up a long time time ago. But there is one place to look for some added fantasy talent that comes with a huge risk/reward potential: the Injured Reserve list.
Picking up your MVP at the hospital
I am currently playing in a couple of ESPN custom leagues that offer IR roster slots to each owner. This is both a good thing and a bit annoying. The good is that when one of my guys that I invested a top draft pick on, say a guy like Daniel Sedin, goes down for a couple weeks, you have a place to store him until he's ready for game action. The annoying thing is that everybody in the league can do this, and consequently many of the best players to hit the IR don't become available.
In leagues without these extra IR roster slots however, fantasy owners face a tough choice when a player of the caliber of Sedin, or more recently Marc Savard, go down to injury. They can hold on to the player and lose out on potential production for the time the player is out, or they can cut their loses, drop the star player and grab whatever has risen to the top of the free agent cesspool.
Enterprising fantasy owners face another option. They can pick up dropped IR-eligible players and store them on their roster. Losing out on some points for a couple weeks is a big gamble, but if you can survive with a corpse on your team the rewards when said player returns can make the acquisition seem like a steal.
The Top 5 IR Eligible Players for Fantasy Owners Who Like Stealing
These guys are ranked in no particular order, but they could provide the biggest boost of the current crop of injured players. Pick these guys up at your own risk though: while they will be huge if they return, many may have played their last games of the season and could be a wasted pickup.
Mike Cammalleri, Left Wing, Montreal Canadiens (87.5% ownership in ESPN Leagues)
Mike is currently rehabbing a knee injury, and Canadiens coach Jacques Martin has said the winger could return March 27 against the New Jersey Devils. This would leave Cammalleri with 2 weeks of the regular season, right about when most fantasy hockey championship games are being decided. He's being horded in most leagues already, but you should grab him if he's available.
Nathan Horton, Right Wing, Florida Panthers (89.9%)
Horton has missed the last 16 games for the Panthers with a fractured leg, but many believe he can return for the final 2-3 weeks of the season. Despite being out for nearly 3 months, he will be unavailable in a majority of leagues. He does deserve a look if available, but is probably at the bottom of this list as far as forwards go.
Marc Savard, Center, Boston Bruins (89.7%)
Savard is another who remains unavailable in nearly 90% of leagues, though his ownership has seen over a 10% plunge since being blindsided by the Pittsburgh Penguins Matt Cooke. IF Savard returns this season, he will be of more value than any player picked up on the waiver wire this year. The problem is that his return is a major if: concussions are way too difficult a thing to predict. He can be symptom free and return within a couple weeks, or his career could be threatened. Marc will be the ultimate risk/reward pickup.
Denis Grebeshkov, Defensemen, Nashville Predators (53.5%)
Denis is one of the more available players on this list, which isn't too surprising. He's had a ho-hum season with only 7 goals and 21 points to this point, though he has had 3 in 5 games since joining the Preds following a trade from Edmonton. His lower body injury is the most minor of these players, and he could actually resume game action within a week. Sorta the opposite of Savard here: not much risk for not too much reward. Just remember how hard it is to find a good defensemen this time of year.
Cam Ward, Goaltender, Carolina Hurricanes (68.5%)
When I began this list, I had no intention of giving one player from each position, but what are you going to do?
Ward has had a very forgettable season. First his team sucks and his play wasn't too much better. Then things start to improve for the team and he gets cut by a skate blade and goes on IR. He returns and starts getting into a rhythm and he goes back onto IR with a back injury. The original prognosis had Ward's season being over: he was injured way too often and the Hurricanes weren't even playing what most people would call "hockey." But now the 'Canes are racing towards a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference and Cam Ward is working towards a second return from injury. He'll likely be good for some wins and an average save percentage and goals against if he does return, and could make a solid #2 or #3 netminder.
The problem is that it is unlikely that there will be very many quality players left on your waiver wire. Most of the teams competing for the playoffs will have snapped them up a long time time ago. But there is one place to look for some added fantasy talent that comes with a huge risk/reward potential: the Injured Reserve list.
Picking up your MVP at the hospital
I am currently playing in a couple of ESPN custom leagues that offer IR roster slots to each owner. This is both a good thing and a bit annoying. The good is that when one of my guys that I invested a top draft pick on, say a guy like Daniel Sedin, goes down for a couple weeks, you have a place to store him until he's ready for game action. The annoying thing is that everybody in the league can do this, and consequently many of the best players to hit the IR don't become available.
In leagues without these extra IR roster slots however, fantasy owners face a tough choice when a player of the caliber of Sedin, or more recently Marc Savard, go down to injury. They can hold on to the player and lose out on potential production for the time the player is out, or they can cut their loses, drop the star player and grab whatever has risen to the top of the free agent cesspool.
Enterprising fantasy owners face another option. They can pick up dropped IR-eligible players and store them on their roster. Losing out on some points for a couple weeks is a big gamble, but if you can survive with a corpse on your team the rewards when said player returns can make the acquisition seem like a steal.
The Top 5 IR Eligible Players for Fantasy Owners Who Like Stealing
These guys are ranked in no particular order, but they could provide the biggest boost of the current crop of injured players. Pick these guys up at your own risk though: while they will be huge if they return, many may have played their last games of the season and could be a wasted pickup.
Mike Cammalleri, Left Wing, Montreal Canadiens (87.5% ownership in ESPN Leagues)
Mike is currently rehabbing a knee injury, and Canadiens coach Jacques Martin has said the winger could return March 27 against the New Jersey Devils. This would leave Cammalleri with 2 weeks of the regular season, right about when most fantasy hockey championship games are being decided. He's being horded in most leagues already, but you should grab him if he's available.
Nathan Horton, Right Wing, Florida Panthers (89.9%)
Horton has missed the last 16 games for the Panthers with a fractured leg, but many believe he can return for the final 2-3 weeks of the season. Despite being out for nearly 3 months, he will be unavailable in a majority of leagues. He does deserve a look if available, but is probably at the bottom of this list as far as forwards go.
Marc Savard, Center, Boston Bruins (89.7%)
Savard is another who remains unavailable in nearly 90% of leagues, though his ownership has seen over a 10% plunge since being blindsided by the Pittsburgh Penguins Matt Cooke. IF Savard returns this season, he will be of more value than any player picked up on the waiver wire this year. The problem is that his return is a major if: concussions are way too difficult a thing to predict. He can be symptom free and return within a couple weeks, or his career could be threatened. Marc will be the ultimate risk/reward pickup.
Denis Grebeshkov, Defensemen, Nashville Predators (53.5%)
Denis is one of the more available players on this list, which isn't too surprising. He's had a ho-hum season with only 7 goals and 21 points to this point, though he has had 3 in 5 games since joining the Preds following a trade from Edmonton. His lower body injury is the most minor of these players, and he could actually resume game action within a week. Sorta the opposite of Savard here: not much risk for not too much reward. Just remember how hard it is to find a good defensemen this time of year.
Cam Ward, Goaltender, Carolina Hurricanes (68.5%)
When I began this list, I had no intention of giving one player from each position, but what are you going to do?
Ward has had a very forgettable season. First his team sucks and his play wasn't too much better. Then things start to improve for the team and he gets cut by a skate blade and goes on IR. He returns and starts getting into a rhythm and he goes back onto IR with a back injury. The original prognosis had Ward's season being over: he was injured way too often and the Hurricanes weren't even playing what most people would call "hockey." But now the 'Canes are racing towards a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference and Cam Ward is working towards a second return from injury. He'll likely be good for some wins and an average save percentage and goals against if he does return, and could make a solid #2 or #3 netminder.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Miracle on Ice
Sidney Crosby scored the biggest goal to win the highest prize for the greatest nation in hockey. So what if Canada's 3-2 overtime victory over Team USA Sunday wasn't actually a miracle. When you look at it objectively, could there have been a more fitting, riveting finish to one of the greatest hockey games in history?
Most people in the Pittsburgh area who don't follow hockey nearly as much as they follow the Penguins are unaware of the animosity that so many worldwide (or more specifically, outside of Canada) feel for Sid. I checked a couple of blogs and forums during gold-medal game and, let me tell you, there were many harsh words for Crosby and for Canada.
Hockey is the national pastime of Canada. To compare, being a hockey fan in Canada is like being obese in America: everybody does it. And Sid is the symbol of the Canadian hockey fan, doing everything he can to be a part of the game's greatest moments.
So if you go back to hating Crosby because he isn't piling up points for you team, so be it. All I can ask is that you take a second to realize that while unique, this victory is as important and as storybook to Canadian hockey as the 1980 miracle was to American hockey.
And now back to your regularly scheduled blog...
The Olympics are officially over and now I can ease back into the task at hand: giving advice to get your fantasy team over the hump and into championship contention.
There was a trade minutes after the NHL's trade embargo was lifted at midnight Sunday. It will bring Jordan Leopold to the Pittsburgh Penguins while the Florida Panthers receive Pittsburgh's 2nd round draft pick in 2010.
This trade does little to the value of Leopold for fantasy purposes. He has 7 goals and 11 assists this season, but is a middle of the pack minus-7 and is nothing more than a big body. He should see a higher plus/minus with Pittsburgh and may even see an up-tick in points playing with better forwards, but his value for fantasy will be severely limited to only the most desperate of teams.
Where this deal gets interesting is in the fact that it now gives Pittsburgh 8 NHL-quality defensemen: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski, Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik, Mark Eaton, Martin Skoula, Jay McKee, and now Leopold.
One of these is very likely to be traded by the March 3rd deadline. I suspect that Letang or Goligoski will move on (perhaps packaged with Jordan Staal) in exchange for a winger to play with Sid or Evgeni Malkin. All this could lead to a change in fantasy value for Letang, Goligoski, and the party-to-be-named-later. Of course this is all just speculation and is part of the fun with the trade deadline.
Thats a wrap for today. The next entry will see what the biggest shakeups from the deadline have for fantasy teams going forward.
Jordan Leopold image courtesy of NHL.com
Most people in the Pittsburgh area who don't follow hockey nearly as much as they follow the Penguins are unaware of the animosity that so many worldwide (or more specifically, outside of Canada) feel for Sid. I checked a couple of blogs and forums during gold-medal game and, let me tell you, there were many harsh words for Crosby and for Canada.
Hockey is the national pastime of Canada. To compare, being a hockey fan in Canada is like being obese in America: everybody does it. And Sid is the symbol of the Canadian hockey fan, doing everything he can to be a part of the game's greatest moments.
So if you go back to hating Crosby because he isn't piling up points for you team, so be it. All I can ask is that you take a second to realize that while unique, this victory is as important and as storybook to Canadian hockey as the 1980 miracle was to American hockey.
And now back to your regularly scheduled blog...
The Olympics are officially over and now I can ease back into the task at hand: giving advice to get your fantasy team over the hump and into championship contention.
There was a trade minutes after the NHL's trade embargo was lifted at midnight Sunday. It will bring Jordan Leopold to the Pittsburgh Penguins while the Florida Panthers receive Pittsburgh's 2nd round draft pick in 2010.This trade does little to the value of Leopold for fantasy purposes. He has 7 goals and 11 assists this season, but is a middle of the pack minus-7 and is nothing more than a big body. He should see a higher plus/minus with Pittsburgh and may even see an up-tick in points playing with better forwards, but his value for fantasy will be severely limited to only the most desperate of teams.
Where this deal gets interesting is in the fact that it now gives Pittsburgh 8 NHL-quality defensemen: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski, Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik, Mark Eaton, Martin Skoula, Jay McKee, and now Leopold.
One of these is very likely to be traded by the March 3rd deadline. I suspect that Letang or Goligoski will move on (perhaps packaged with Jordan Staal) in exchange for a winger to play with Sid or Evgeni Malkin. All this could lead to a change in fantasy value for Letang, Goligoski, and the party-to-be-named-later. Of course this is all just speculation and is part of the fun with the trade deadline.
Thats a wrap for today. The next entry will see what the biggest shakeups from the deadline have for fantasy teams going forward.
Jordan Leopold image courtesy of NHL.com
Monday, February 22, 2010
Not Quite the Greatest Victory Ever / Predictions
Watching any national sports program today really made me wish Brett Favre was still in the spotlight to take the attention from the United States victory over Canada last night.
Don't get me wrong, the Americans 5-3 win isn't meaningless. It was the first time the Americans bested the Canadians at the Olympic Games since 1960, which I guess is neat. The victory also proved that the less talented USA team could hold their own with the current hockey powers of the world. And winning a bye into the quarterfinals is still rather important.
But spending 5 minutes watching the four-letter network or any similar station left you with the impression that this victory rivals the Miracle on Ice. It is not.
Yesterday's game did prove that USA goaltender Ryan Miller can steal a game. It also showed that the Canadians may be caving under the pressure to produce for the hometown fans. While this wasn't the biggest game for the Americans, it is one of the most important losses for Team Canada in Olympic competition.
The fact remains that if Team USA wants to win a medal of any color, it will need to be 'Miller Time' for 3 more games. The Americans do not have the firepower to hang with Sweden, the Czechs, Canadians, or Russians. Team Finland plays the same type of gritty game the Americans try to play, except they are more experienced and talented and have their own brick wall in Miikka Kiprusoff.
Qualification Playoffs Predictions
Enough talk on that subject, the first 4 of the single-elimination games are Tuesday.
vs. 
The first game on tap should be the most competitive. Team Belarus, led by former Pittsburgh Penguin first-rounder Konstantin Koltsov, has a very potent offense that nearly surprised Sweden in the preliminary round before coming alive against Germany.
Switzerland, led by Anaheim Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller and New York Islanders rearguard Mark Streit, are a team that has relied on their defensive play to defeat their opponents. While not very gifted offensively, the Swiss defense should be able to provide enough opportunities for their offense produce.
Switzerland 3, Belarus 2
vs. 
I kind of feel bad for the Latvians. They were thoroughly out-played by the Czechs in their first meeting of these Olympics, and now they have to face a Jaromir Jagr who is more possessed and determined to produce than ever. This game will not be as close as their first meeting.
Czech Republic 6, Latvia 1
vs. 
Slovakia holds the biggest upset of this tournament, besting Team Russia in overtime. Norway was blown out in their first two games before being allowed in a track meet with Switzerland. The NHL-laden Slovaks should run away with this one.
Slovakia 5, Norway 2
vs. 
The Germans need to be prepared for an all-out assault from their qualification round opponent. Team Canada has a ton to prove, and the Germans likely will not be up to the task of holding them off. The biggest question about this game is whether Martin Brodeur gets another Olympics start.
Canada 7, Germany 2
Don't get me wrong, the Americans 5-3 win isn't meaningless. It was the first time the Americans bested the Canadians at the Olympic Games since 1960, which I guess is neat. The victory also proved that the less talented USA team could hold their own with the current hockey powers of the world. And winning a bye into the quarterfinals is still rather important.
But spending 5 minutes watching the four-letter network or any similar station left you with the impression that this victory rivals the Miracle on Ice. It is not.
Yesterday's game did prove that USA goaltender Ryan Miller can steal a game. It also showed that the Canadians may be caving under the pressure to produce for the hometown fans. While this wasn't the biggest game for the Americans, it is one of the most important losses for Team Canada in Olympic competition.
The fact remains that if Team USA wants to win a medal of any color, it will need to be 'Miller Time' for 3 more games. The Americans do not have the firepower to hang with Sweden, the Czechs, Canadians, or Russians. Team Finland plays the same type of gritty game the Americans try to play, except they are more experienced and talented and have their own brick wall in Miikka Kiprusoff.
Qualification Playoffs Predictions
Enough talk on that subject, the first 4 of the single-elimination games are Tuesday.
vs. The first game on tap should be the most competitive. Team Belarus, led by former Pittsburgh Penguin first-rounder Konstantin Koltsov, has a very potent offense that nearly surprised Sweden in the preliminary round before coming alive against Germany.
Switzerland, led by Anaheim Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller and New York Islanders rearguard Mark Streit, are a team that has relied on their defensive play to defeat their opponents. While not very gifted offensively, the Swiss defense should be able to provide enough opportunities for their offense produce.
Switzerland 3, Belarus 2
vs. I kind of feel bad for the Latvians. They were thoroughly out-played by the Czechs in their first meeting of these Olympics, and now they have to face a Jaromir Jagr who is more possessed and determined to produce than ever. This game will not be as close as their first meeting.
Czech Republic 6, Latvia 1
vs. Slovakia holds the biggest upset of this tournament, besting Team Russia in overtime. Norway was blown out in their first two games before being allowed in a track meet with Switzerland. The NHL-laden Slovaks should run away with this one.
Slovakia 5, Norway 2
vs. The Germans need to be prepared for an all-out assault from their qualification round opponent. Team Canada has a ton to prove, and the Germans likely will not be up to the task of holding them off. The biggest question about this game is whether Martin Brodeur gets another Olympics start.
Canada 7, Germany 2
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Spring Break for the Fantasy World
Okay, maybe Spring Break isn't the best title, since most of us are still buried under literal feet of snow, but it works in principal.
The NHL is taking a couple of weeks off for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia and that leaves all the fantasy poolies with nothing to do for a couple weeks. (I mean, you could scout players to pick up over the course of the last couple weeks of the season, but do you really need 2 weeks to do that?)
As for me, I'm left with nothing relevant to talk about for a couple weeks, so why not look at how everyone's Olympic teams is faring after their first game.
Canada 8, Norway 0.
Hockey fans north of the border were shocked that this game remained tied after one period. That tie lasted long enough for Sidney Crosby to find his favorite new linemate, Jarome Iginla hiding in the slot.
Nobody realistically expected this game to be close, but it certainly wasn't the blowout it could have been. Norwegian goaltender Pal Grotnes was bombarded by Canadian shots yet only yielded 4 goals before leaving the game with muscle tightness in the 3rd period. Grotnes is the most important member of Team Norway and he showed that he has the ability to steal a game from all but the top tier of teams in Vancouver.
Its hard to be too critical of a team that just won 8-0, but one thing the Canadians will have to do to win this tournament is stay out of the penalty box. Norway may not be gifted enough to capitalize on the ample opportunities Canada gave them, but many of the other teams do have the firepower to make them pay for their overzealous play.
USA 3, Switzerland 1
This was a game that I thought the Swiss had a very good opportunity to outright steal. And were it not for some great individual plays by Americans David Backes and Bobby Ryan, as well as USA goaltender Ryan Miller's staunch play between the pipes, a Swiss victory may have occured.
While Switzerland will be terribly outclassed by Team Canada in their next meeting, they should have a more than reasonable chance against Norway. The Swiss play a tight defensive style, and with some timely goaltending from Jonas Hiller and the occasional goal, they have the resources to surprise some teams again this time like they did with their 4th place finish at the Turin Olympics.
The score of this game may have been tight, but if you watched it you would agree, Team USA was not going to lose this game. They appeared to be doing just enough to win, and doing it very well. They pressed when they needed scoring, and fell back when they needed to protect a lead. Their game against Norway should be more polished and give everyone a better idea of where they really stack up before facing off with Canada this Sunday.
Those were the games in Group A, tomorrow I'll look at the teams in Groups B and C and after Sunday's games look at how things are shaping up for the remainder of the tournament...or I'll just watch more curling and forget to do any of this.
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