Saturday, April 24, 2010

Playoff Teams on Even Terms So Far

San Jose, Chicago, Detroit, and to a lesser extent Vancouver were all expected to roll right through their Western Conference foes in the first round of the NHL Playoffs. Things were going to be even more one sided in the East, were no teams could possibly match the might of Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, and Buffalo.

Obviously the lower seeded teams (and the higher seeded Phoenix Coyotes) didn't get the memo that they were to roll over and die.

Through 4 games, every series in the Western Conference was tied at 2 games a piece. And home-ice advantage wasn't all it is usually cracked up to be, with the home teams only going 8-8 over that span.

Through 4 games in the East, the lower seeds weren't just staying with the higher seeded teams, they were actually beating them in a couple cases. Philadelphia was up 3-1 in a series they weren't even supposed to be a part of (they have since dispatched the New Jersey Devils) and Boston continued their excellent play against the Buffalo Sabres.

Only the Washington Capitals have had as easy a time in their series as was expected, though they are now up 3-2 against the Montreal Canadiens.

Philly will likely play the Capitals in the second round. The series should be a close, tight-checking affair but in the end, the Capitals potent offense should allow them to move on. The injury-plagued Flyers have exceeded expectations just to make it this far, but its the farthest they will advance this year.

The Pittsburgh Penguins will have 2 chances to dispatch the Ottawa Senators and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Pens play in Ottawa tonight, where they are 2-0 in the playoffs so far, and if they fail will get another go in Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

The winner of this series will play the winner of the Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins series, which the Bruins currently lead 3-2. Boston has been the better team and should advance given their current advantage, but its hard to count out the Sabres with the way goaltender Ryan Miller has played this year.

In the west, San Jose seems to finally be getting over their playoff funk from the past couple years. Colorado has looked anemic since the Sharks Joe Pavelski scored in overtime in game 4.

The series between the Vancouver Canucks and the Los Angeles Kings has been one that has gone closest to predictions. Both teams have seemed almost unstoppable in their home arenas of late, a trend which will favor the Canucks. The Kings are a young team that will be even better in years to come, but this likely isn't their year to excel.

The last two Western Conference series's, the Detroit Red Wings vs. the Phoenix Coyotes and the Chicago Blackhawks vs. the Nashville Predators, will come down to the wire. The Wings and 'Yotes have played some of the best games of these young playoffs, but Phoenix will have to win at the Joe Louis Arena in Hockeytown if they are to advance.

Goaltending has been the lay of the land in the Hawks vs. Predators series, which is currently tied 2-2. Chicago's offensive talent should be enough to bring home a series victory, but Nashville netminder Pekka Rinne is more than good enough to steal it.

Monday, April 12, 2010

NHL Playoffs Primer: Eastern Conference

Forget the last 6+ months and 82 games. For the 16 teams that earned their birth into the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup, the past means nothing. They are all need 16 wins to claim the prize.

Today we'll look at the 4 matchups in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, and tomorrow the West.


#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montréal Canadiens

The Canadiens played some of their best hockey of the season coming out of the Olympic break. Andrei Markov returned to the club after missing a most of the year and Mike Cammalleri is back after a late season injury.

The Habs even have a #1 goaltender going into the playoffs. Jaroslav Halek has earned the top job and is playing consistent between the pipes, something that seemed like an impossibility earlier this season.

Montréal's biggest strength and best chance of winning this series is their 2nd ranked powerplay. But they had the fewest opportunities with the man advantage in the league in 09-10, so they will have to work much harder and draw some calls against Washington to put their vaunted PP to work.

And yet as good as the Canadiens were this year, the Washington Capitals were that much better. Winning the President's Trophy as the best regular season team, no other team in the league rolled through the schedule like no other.

The Canadiens had the 2nd ranked powerplay, but the most potent man advantage in the league was the Capitals'. Alexander Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, and 40 goal scorer Alexander Semin join topscoring rearguard Mike Green to reek havoc on opposing teams.

Nobody can question the offensive might of the Capitals. The only question is can their defense and goaltending hold up? Netminders Semyon Varlamov and Jose Theodore have looked brilliant at times this year, but have also been miserable and in need of plenty of bailouts from Ovi and Company.

But as shaky as the Capitals defense may be, there is likely no way that the Canadiens, who were the worst team in the league 5-on-5, can capitalize and make much of a run at taking the series, and barring a very flat game by the Capitals may not be able to take a single game.

Capitals win in 4


#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers

Well, the Flyers managed to not completely blow a shot at this years playoffs, claiming their spot in a shootout against the New York Rangers Sunday. Unfortunately, that may be the last positive for a team that has been plagued with injuries all season.

Goaltender Brian Boucher has been forced into the starting role for the first period of extended time in his career, and he has been quite hit or miss all season. He was splendid in the season finale against Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers, but that has been offset by some less than impressive outings.

The Flyers will also be without Jeff Carter for the series. The Flyers are more than talented enough on offense to compensate for his loss. Simon Gagne, Danny Briere, and Mike Richards, and Scott Hartnell will need to carry the club.

Offense is usually a weak point for the #2 seeded Devils, but it may be a strength this season. Joining Patrick Elias, Travis Zajac, and Zach Parise via trade was Russian sniper Ilya Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk teams with Parise to give the Devils a 1-2 scoring punch rivaled by few teams in the NHL.

Off course any discussion of this series would not be complete without looking at the living legend Martin Brodeur. Any critics who said Marty looked old at the end of last season have surely been silenced by a Vezina-worthy showing this season, and he has the ability to take this team to the Cup finals by himself.

This series will come done to the goaltenders, and it is very unlikely that Boucher will be able to out duel his Devils counterpart.

Devils win in 5


#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins

Boston entered last year's Stanley Cup Playoffs as the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and were quickly dispatched by a Carolina Hurricanes team that had scoring depth and steady goaltending. If Boston is to make a run this year, they will need to learn from last season's lessons.

Rookie Tuukka Rask has usurped veteran Tim Thomas as the top netminder for the Bruins. Rask has been outstanding this year, and is top-5 in the league in Goals Against Average and Save Percentage. A solid defense core led by 6'9" Zdeno Chara has held opposing scorers in check all year, and nobody will question the Bruins defensively.

Offensive leader Marc Savard will likely miss the entire series. What this means is Boston will need to look a lot like Carolina did last year offensively, getting scoring from all 4 lines. The good news is they have that ability. David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Miroslav Satan will need to lead Boston against one of the best goaltenders in the league.

It has been 'Miller Time' all year in Buffalo. Veteran Ryan Miller backstopped the Sabres to a division title this year and is the likely Vezina Trophy winner. Miller was a huge reason for the defensive success of the Sabres, but a strong defensive group led by veteran Toni Lydman and Calder-candidate Tyler Myers deserve some of the credit.

Offensively Buffalo is perhaps better than they have been in a couple seasons. Derek Roy is always a premier scoring threat, and Thomas Vanek has added 5 goals in 2 games since returning from a minor groin injury. Tim Connoly could also return from injury at some point in the series, and his addition will bolster and already deep scoring team.

The series is one of the most competitive in the East. Buffalo is the better team on paper, but Boston played them very well all season long. Both teams are missing their leading scorers and both play strong defense in front of outstanding goaltending. It will be close, but look for Ryan Miller to out duel Tuukka Rask in a series that may go the limit.

Sabres win in 6


#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators

For the third time in the past four seasons, the Senators and Penguins will square off in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

This time around, Ottawa is being lead by a resurgent offense led by veterans Daniel Alfredson and Jason Spezza. Milan Michalek, Mike Fisher, and Chris Kelly provide some much needed secondary scoring. They will need to step up in the absence of Alex Kovalev, who will miss the series with a knee injury.

Goalie Brian Elliot has been steady much of the year, but a lot of the Senators defensive credit should fall on the blueliners. Chris Phillips and Andy Sutton join Anton Volchenkov to form a giant, menacing rear guard that will give opposing scorers fits.

The Penguins, as always, are led by their offense. Sidney Crosby has turned himself into a top faceoff man and a league-leading goal scorer, while last season's Conn Smythe winner Evgeni Malkin continues to play his best in high pressure situations. Alex Ponikarovsky and Bill Guerin will be looked upon heavily to take some scoring burden off of the two superstars.

On the backend the Pens are lead by powerplay specialist Sergei Gonchar. New addition Jordan Leopold and long-time 'Guins Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski, and Mark Eaton will look to shut down Spezza and Alfredson and even chip in on the offense a bit.

The Penguins have had some problems over the season, especially on the powerplay. But they are a team built for a long playoff series and are loaded with big-game performers. The games may be close all series long, but the Pens should come out on top.

Penguins win in 5