Sunday, January 31, 2010

Impact of the Shake-Up in Toronto

Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Brian Burke isn't quitting his day job early to watch Team USA in Vancouver in a couple of weeks. Burke completed two trades over the weekend that will have far reaching implications in both on the ice and in the fantasy hockey world.

The first deal sent LW Niklas Hagman, C Matt Stajan, RW Jamal Mayers, and D Ian White to Calgary in exchange for prospect Kieth Aulie, RW Fredrik Sjostrom, and D Dion Phaneuf.

Most of those players will arrive in their new cities and play as advertised: Stajan and Hagman will be 50-60 point a year guys and Ian White will be a gritty, consistant defenseman. Phaneuf, however, provides a huge upside for fantasy owners.

Dion broke out in 2007-08 with 17 goals and 60 points, and many places had him as a top 10 defenseman heading into last season. Instead, a season of inconsistency lead to a career low 47-point campaign in 08-09. A chance at the Canadian Olympic team was thought to surely bring Phaneuf back to his high water marks.

But Phaneuf owners have been severely disappointed thus far this season. He failed to make the Olympic team, and inconsistant play at both the offensive and defensive ends have led to only 22 points through 55 games. A change in scenery may be just what the doctor ordered for the hard-hitting Albertan native.

The Calgary Flames brought in a near carbon copy of Phaneuf in free agent Jay Bouwmeester during the off-season, and what was thought to be one of the top defensive cores in the league has proven to be one of the most underachieving. Moving out from under Bouwmeester and out of his home province should take a lot of burden off the young blueliner's shoulders and let him open up into his form from two years ago.

Dion's owners, who were shopping him around for cheap just a couple days ago, may have struck gold. There is still a chance that his numbers do not improve, but the upside is so great that he may be worth the gamble for many owners trying to make or secure a playoff spot.

The second deal sees Burke reunited with 2007 Stanley Cup winning netminder Jean-Sebastian Giguere. Giguere came from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for G Vesa Toskala and LW Jason Blake.

Two players stand out in this trade for potential fantasy increases. Blake will be inserted into a top-6 role in Anaheim, and will likely play on a line with Saku Koivu. When you throw in potential power play time with the likes of Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, and Corey Perry, its easy to understand why Blake's value should reach far and above his current 28.7% ownership in ESPN fantasy leagues.

As big of an upside as Blake has, the upside for Giguere is astronomical. J.S. will likely be inserted directly into the number 1 role in Toronto, given his relationship with Burke and Toronto goalie coach Francois Allaire (both of whom worked with Giguere in Anaheim). "The Monster" Jonas Gustavsson may be the future for the Maple Leafs, but his play has been very inconsistent and a steady veteran presence like Giguere's could go a long way towards his future development

Giguere could stand to pick up 10-15 wins on the season and develop into a top 10 fantasy goaltender down the stretch. That kind of potential cannot be ignored and if he is available, he at least deserves a look from owners in need of goaltending depth.


Sunday, January 24, 2010

Welcome / Top 10 Booms so far

Welcome, everybody, to what will hopefully be at least a weekly look into what is happening in the National Hockey League. I will look at any major news going on, but will focus mostly on how everything is effecting our fantasy hockey teams and players.

I am from just east of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and have been a big Penguins fan since the early 1990s (before you call me a bandwagoner consider that I was like, 4 or 5 at this time). This love for hockey grew and I have been following the NHL as a whole since the the late 1990s.

So, where are we at from a fantasy perspective in the NHL this year? Well, it turns out Alexander Ovechkin is really good at scoring goals, Martin Brodeur is an okay goaltender, and the San Jose Sharks are a fantastic regular season team. I know, groundbreaking stuff.

So who is actually outperforming their draft positions so far?

10: Ryan Miller, G, Buffalo Sabres (ESPN Average Draft Position: 111.3)

The surprise is not that Ryan Miller is a good play this season, its that he is probably the night in, night out best play. Miller has always put up GAA and SV% numbers becoming of a Top 10 fantasy goaltender, but the Sabres were not supposed to be this good this year, and Miller has to be considered a huge part of this success. The Sabres are a young team with talented but oft-injured forwards and a young defensive core. They haven't been scoring very many goals (just 2.86 per as of today), and its been "Miller Time" often enough for Buffalo to be considered a very dangerous team.

9: Dany Heatley, RW, San Jose Sharks (ESPN ADP: 27.8)

A couple of years ago Heatley was a unanimous top 5 selection in most fantasy formats. He was good for 50+ goals and enough assists and peripheral numbers to be among the most valuable fantasy players. But his recent decline in production combined with his Chernobyl-like fallout in Ottawa left many doubting his ability to be a major player again. Its amazing what playing alongside the best playmaker in the Western Conference (Joe Thornton [I have him as the best playmaker in the league, but thats a debate for another time]) will do for your career. Even more surprising though, is Dany's ability to become the set-up man for Thornton when necessary. Fantasy owners who managed to pick up Heatley in the 3rd or 4th round have been more than rewarded for their bold selection.

8. Miikka Kiprusoff, G, Calgary Flames (ESPN ADP: 106.9)

Coming into the season, "Kipper" was looked at as the ying to Ryan Miller's yang. Everybody had Miikka penciled in for 38+ wins, but the reason he fell so far in many drafts were his awful Goals Against and Save Percentage numbers. With a GAA last year of nearly 3.00 and a save percentage barely over .900, Kiprusoff just didn't provide enough incentive to owners, despite the guaranteed wins granted by Calgary's potent offense. The Flames aren't the force they were last season, and as a result Kiprusoff will likely end up below 40 wins this season. But with a GAA of 2.25 and a SV% at a healthy .924, you can safely play him on any given night.

7. Patrick Marleau, LW, San Jose Sharks (ESPN ADP: 57.0)

Like many of the players on this list so far, its not a surprise that Marleau has been good this year. The surprise is that he is among the league leaders in goals and points. Many thought Marleau's 38 goal, 71 point season last year (76 games played) was his ceiling, but he is on pace to shatter both those numbers this season. Patrick already has 35 goals and 57 points through 53 games, and as long as he continues to play on an even strength unit with Thornton and Heatley, he will be fantastic.

6. Tyler Myers, D, Buffalo Sabres (ESPN ADP: Not Drafted)

Can anybody actually say they drafted Myers for their fantasy squad? An 18-year-old rookie at one of the hardest positions in professional sports isn't supposed to put up numbers like he has. Tyler is a brief hot streak from having a 50 point year (7g-22a-29pts through 50 games) and has been one of the many overachievers who have the Buffalo Sabres near the top of the Eastern Conference. The reason he isn't higher on the list is he is still a rookie. If he does go on ahead and hit the 50 point plateau, he will be one of the biggest fantasy surprises in recent memory.

5. Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings (ESPN ADP: 91.5)

If this list was posted a couple months ago, Anze would be on top of it. But Kopitar has recently fallen off of his 100 point pace and settled into a still impressive point-a-game pace for the surprising LA Kings. The Kings young talent is maturing quicker than expected, and Kopitar is leading this group to a potential playoff birth. Kopitar may not lead the league but his production is more than rewarding for those who got him in the 8th+ round.

4. Tomas Plekanec, C, Montreal Canadiens (ESPN ADP: Not Drafted)

You could make a list like this every year and it would likely include Plekanec's name. Every season he starts on the third line and by the half way point poor play or injuries to the centers above him on Les Bleu Blanc Rouge depth chart will see Tomas on a near point a game pace. If you picked him up a couple months ago, enjoy the ride. Its doubtful that Plekanec can keep up his point a game pace for the entire season, but you likely picked him up for zero investment, so any consistant production is surprising.

3. Craig Anderson, G, Colorado Avalanche (ESPN ADP: 95.6)

Remember last season when Tomas Vokoun went down to injury and Anderson stepped in for Florida. Many figured the Panthers would slip to the bottom of the standing and become a non-factor. That didn't happen and it doesn't look like Colorado is going to fade out this season either. Anderson has proven that he's the real deal: a goaltender who can play nearly every night and provide a team of young, inexperienced players a chance to win every game.

2. Alex Burrows, RW, Vancouver Canucks (ESPN ADP: 40.6)
1. Henrik Sedin, C, Vancouver Canucks (ESPN ADP: 60.9)

Who is the most valuable player in Vancouver? Before this season many would have said Daniel Sedin was integral to the success of the Canucks, and after he went on injured reserve 4 games into the season, it would have made sense if Vancouver packed it up and fell to the bottom of the Northwest Division. But instead twin brother Henrik and Burrows, "the third twin", picked up their games. Henrik is leading the league in scoring and on pace for 120 points, well above a career high of 82. Burrows was on the receiving end of most of Henrik's assists while Daniel sat out, and continues to enjoy a career season himself. The only thing not surprising about this line is that it has seen its production increase since Daniel returned.