Not Quite the Greatest Victory Ever / Predictions

Watching any national sports program today really made me wish Brett Favre was still in the spotlight to take the attention from the United States victory over Canada last night.

Don't get me wrong, the Americans 5-3 win isn't meaningless. It was the first time the Americans bested the Canadians at the Olympic Games since 1960, which I guess is neat. The victory also proved that the less talented USA team could hold their own with the current hockey powers of the world. And winning a bye into the quarterfinals is still rather important.

But spending 5 minutes watching the four-letter network or any similar station left you with the impression that this victory rivals the Miracle on Ice. It is not.

Yesterday's game did prove that USA goaltender Ryan Miller can steal a game. It also showed that the Canadians may be caving under the pressure to produce for the hometown fans. While this wasn't the biggest game for the Americans, it is one of the most important losses for Team Canada in Olympic competition.

The fact remains that if Team USA wants to win a medal of any color, it will need to be 'Miller Time' for 3 more games. The Americans do not have the firepower to hang with Sweden, the Czechs, Canadians, or Russians. Team Finland plays the same type of gritty game the Americans try to play, except they are more experienced and talented and have their own brick wall in Miikka Kiprusoff.


Qualification Playoffs Predictions

Enough talk on that subject, the first 4 of the single-elimination games are Tuesday.

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The first game on tap should be the most competitive. Team Belarus, led by former Pittsburgh Penguin first-rounder Konstantin Koltsov, has a very potent offense that nearly surprised Sweden in the preliminary round before coming alive against Germany.

Switzerland, led by Anaheim Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller and New York Islanders rearguard Mark Streit, are a team that has relied on their defensive play to defeat their opponents. While not very gifted offensively, the Swiss defense should be able to provide enough opportunities for their offense produce.

Switzerland 3, Belarus 2

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I kind of feel bad for the Latvians. They were thoroughly out-played by the Czechs in their first meeting of these Olympics, and now they have to face a Jaromir Jagr who is more possessed and determined to produce than ever. This game will not be as close as their first meeting.

Czech Republic 6, Latvia 1

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Slovakia holds the biggest upset of this tournament, besting Team Russia in overtime. Norway was blown out in their first two games before being allowed in a track meet with Switzerland. The NHL-laden Slovaks should run away with this one.

Slovakia 5, Norway 2

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The Germans need to be prepared for an all-out assault from their qualification round opponent. Team Canada has a ton to prove, and the Germans likely will not be up to the task of holding them off. The biggest question about this game is whether Martin Brodeur gets another Olympics start.

Canada 7, Germany 2

Spring Break for the Fantasy World

Okay, maybe Spring Break isn't the best title, since most of us are still buried under literal feet of snow, but it works in principal.

The NHL is taking a couple of weeks off for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia and that leaves all the fantasy poolies with nothing to do for a couple weeks. (I mean, you could scout players to pick up over the course of the last couple weeks of the season, but do you really need 2 weeks to do that?)

As for me, I'm left with nothing relevant to talk about for a couple weeks, so why not look at how everyone's Olympic teams is faring after their first game.

Canada 8, Norway 0.

Hockey fans north of the border were shocked that this game remained tied after one period. That tie lasted long enough for Sidney Crosby to find his favorite new linemate, Jarome Iginla hiding in the slot.

Nobody realistically expected this game to be close, but it certainly wasn't the blowout it could have been. Norwegian goaltender Pal Grotnes was bombarded by Canadian shots yet only yielded 4 goals before leaving the game with muscle tightness in the 3rd period. Grotnes is the most important member of Team Norway and he showed that he has the ability to steal a game from all but the top tier of teams in Vancouver.

Its hard to be too critical of a team that just won 8-0, but one thing the Canadians will have to do to win this tournament is stay out of the penalty box. Norway may not be gifted enough to capitalize on the ample opportunities Canada gave them, but many of the other teams do have the firepower to make them pay for their overzealous play.

USA 3, Switzerland 1

This was a game that I thought the Swiss had a very good opportunity to outright steal. And were it not for some great individual plays by Americans David Backes and Bobby Ryan, as well as USA goaltender Ryan Miller's staunch play between the pipes, a Swiss victory may have occured.

While Switzerland will be terribly outclassed by Team Canada in their next meeting, they should have a more than reasonable chance against Norway. The Swiss play a tight defensive style, and with some timely goaltending from Jonas Hiller and the occasional goal, they have the resources to surprise some teams again this time like they did with their 4th place finish at the Turin Olympics.

The score of this game may have been tight, but if you watched it you would agree, Team USA was not going to lose this game. They appeared to be doing just enough to win, and doing it very well. They pressed when they needed scoring, and fell back when they needed to protect a lead. Their game against Norway should be more polished and give everyone a better idea of where they really stack up before facing off with Canada this Sunday.

Those were the games in Group A, tomorrow I'll look at the teams in Groups B and C and after Sunday's games look at how things are shaping up for the remainder of the tournament...or I'll just watch more curling and forget to do any of this.

Pushing for a Championship

The upcoming Olympic break will provide an interesting backdrop to many fantasy hockey leagues. Fantasy owners will know for the most part where they stand in their leagues playoff picture, but some will need to use the last couple of weeks to secure or steal a spot.

So what better time to get ready for that final push to the playoffs and beyond than the 2-week fantasy hiatus that begins Valentines Day. That break from fantasy action will give all of you owners plenty of time to scout the best available players and make the necessary free agent signings to get your team the best finish possible.

Who's the best of what's left? Below are my top-5 players likely to still be free agents in your fantasy leagues. Each of them is under 50% ownership in ESPN leagues as of this posting.

5. Alexei Ponikarovsky, LW, TOR (47.7% ESPN Ownership)

With many of the forwards who started the season with the Maple Leafs off to Calgary and Anaheim, it would make sense that somebody would step up and take charge of the Toronto offense, right? Well, that person is Phil Kessel...but Ponikarovsky has always been a 50-60 points-a-year guy and his production could see a slight up-tick if he continues to see a bulk of his time playing with Kessel and seeing first line minutes and powerplay time.

Alexei currently sets at 19 goals and 41 points, but it is not too crazy to think he can add 20-25 more to that point total given the circumstances.

4. Jussi Jokinen, LW, CAR (35.0%)

If you were a Carolina Hurricanes forward early this season and your name wasn't Eric Staal, you were to be avoided like the plague. The 'Canes were dreadful early this year, and many forwards on the club were combining inconsistent offensive numbers with poor defensive end coverage. But since goalie Cam Ward returned in late December, the team has righted ship and many of its players are serviceable fantasy options.

Jokinen is a gritty player who is seeing plenty of top-6 time with the likes of Staal and Ray Whitney, and his point totals are vastly improved. He has 20 goals on top of 24 assists thus far and has even raised his plus/minus to +4, so he isn't even a liability in leagues that use that stat. His time on ice has been close to 20 minutes a game for the past 2 weeks, and he's fired 3 or more shots on goal in 6 of his last 8.

One point of concern if you do turn to Jussi is the trade rumors swirling around Whitney. When, not if, Ray is sent to a playoff contender, Jokinen will see more play with the inexperienced young talent the Hurricanes have, and his scoring could suffer a bit.

3. Brian Elliot, G, OTT (44.8%)

A couple weeks into this season many were singing the praises of Pascal Leclaire. He was the single most talented goaltender to play for the Senators in their brief history. After that honeymoon, however, most remembered why Leclaire had never met his expectations in the NHL: he was about as durable as a faberge egg.

Elliot has often been the one called upon to start for the Sens when Leclaire has gone down, and the results have been mixed. But fantasy hockey isn't about how somebody did earlier in the season, its 'what have you done for me lately'. And what Elliot has done has been absolutely brilliant between the pipes.

He just completed a run of 9 straight victories, over which time he only surrendered 11 goals. His win total nearly doubled and now sits at 19 on the season, and his save percentage and goals against numbers have been brought within the acceptable range for fantasy netminders. He will likely split time with Leclaire over the course of the season, but when he starts he will be a good bet to play well.

2. Tomas Fleischmann, C/RW, WSH (30.3%)

Its hard to say whether Tomas is having a breakout season (17 goals, 24 assists, 48 games played) or if he's just a benefactor of playing on a team with Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, and Mike Green. Does it matter?

Fleischmann is putting up numbers that would have him in the top 30 in the league in scoring if not for some early season injuries. He is also spending time on the clubs second powerplay unit with Backstrom. Maybe the kids talented. Perhaps its just a points by osmosis thing. Either was he should very likely be a part of your team if he is still available.

1. Antero Niittymaki, G, TB (36.4%)

Finally, somebody is playing consistently enough in goal in Tampa Bay to be considered. Niittymaki had been playing in the shadows of incumbent Mike Smith for much of the campaign, but since the calenders flipped he has been a solid number 1.

The Finnish goaltender has started all but one game for the Lightning since 14-Jan and stands to start the majority of the games for the club the rest of the way. And with Tampa in the mix to make the playoffs after the catastrophe of last season, Niittymaki should make a fantastic play.